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On the road again
After a false start in the 1990s, electric cars are back - and it looks like they're here to stay.
EV admirers are spreading the word, too. There’s the 15-year-old girl from Minneapolis, Minnesota, who bicycled across the U.S. last summer to deliver an electric-car petition to Washington, D.C., the movie star George Clooney awaiting his Tesla in the public eye and former Intel chief Andy Grove, who speaks and writes about the virtues of plug-ins. Even U.S. presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are promoting electric cars in their energy plans. So why is all this happening now? Did consumers finally hit the panic button when gas prices skyrocketed?
“Of course the price of gas is a huge factor,” says Bill Lentfer, senior technical engineer at Electro Automotive, one of the longest-running gas-to-electric conversion shops in the country, in business in California since 1979. “But I really think it’s the zeitgeist of the thing. Some people want to be part of the change, some want to be on the cutting edge and some people just want to stick it to the man.”
Another factor on everyone’s lips is the 2006 documentary Who Killed the Electric Car? The film, written and directed by Chris Paine, chronicled the histories of several electric cars, especially General Motors’ EV-1, put on California roads in 1996 after the state mandated production of zero-emission vehicles. When the regulations were rolled back in 2003, GM and others later recalled their electric cars (most were leased) and even destroyed them, despite a campaign by drivers to keep them. “That movie was the best PR we had,” says Geller, who still drives a vehicle from that era, his beloved Toyota RAV4 EV, which he was able to purchase instead of lease.
So why should we expect electric cars to succeed when they failed a decade ago? “With the technology being realized, my optimism says it will make it this time,” says consultant Swan, of Nova Scotia, Canada, who served on the expert panel of the California Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Resources Board during the no-emissions era. “I’ve seen the interest rise and fall several times, but today there’s a lot of new blood and a lot of new ideas.” Swan is pleased with the progress of Think, which has a storied past in California. “I think City cars are a very good place to start,” he says.
The company, called “Pivco” at its inception in the early 1990s, was bought by Ford Motors during the no-emissions period, when it sold the cars in California under the name “Think Nordic.” After pumping $10 million into research and development, Ford sold Think when the regulation was overturned. The company was moved back to Norway, and a new set of Norwegian investors formed Think Global in 2007. The company plans to roll out an electric sedan called Ox in 2012.
The only new high-speed electric car available in the U.S. this year is the splashy Tesla Roadster, with an acceleration capacity of 0 to 60 mph (97 km/h) in four seconds, and a top speed of 124 mph (200 km/h). While the California company has more promotional merchandise than cars—and their $100,000 price tag is far out of reach for most consumers—its arrival has been hailed as significant. “There are numerous reasons why Tesla is important,” says research analyst Smith. “It’s certainly pushing the envelope and making people react to it—consumers, battery companies, major manufacturers. The barrier is how long it’s taken Tesla to get cars on the road. They are evidence that it’s just not that easy to make a car.”
While Tesla earlier announced it would produce hundreds of cars this year, only 10 had been delivered as of mid-August. A whopping 1,000 have been pre-sold, while the company’s reported backlog of one year will grow much longer at the current rate of production. One Tesla owner, original eBay president and billionaire philanthropist Jeff Skoll, calls the car “a joy to drive.” Skoll is a principle investor in the company, funded primarily by chairman Elon Musk, the founder of PayPal, an e-commerce business eBay bought in 2002.
“It’s light and fast, and it handles very well,” Skoll says of the Roadster via email. “Unlike any gas car, there is full power throughout the range, so you don’t have to wait for the engine to rev up.” The southern California resident notes the 250-mile (400-kilometre) range can be a hindrance, but says, “I hope this opens a new way for people to think about transportation.”
In his experience, driving a Tesla can’t be done anonymously. “People recognize the car all the time,” Skoll says. “Some people even get out at stoplights to ask questions—all guys though, alas.”
At the opposite end of the sexy-ride spectrum are Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs). These low-speed electric cars are configured to go 25 mph (40 km/h) and can’t legally be driven anywhere the speed limit tops 35 mph (55 km/h). They typically have a range of 30 to 50 miles (50 to 80 km). Manufacturers include Chrysler’s Global Electric Motorcars, Zap, Zenn Motors, Miles Automotive and Myers Motors. Traditionally, NEVs were found only in gated communities and company lots; now they’re showing up on city streets. “NEVs are very viable and affordable,” Plug In board member Geller says. “The problem is the restrictions.”
While most states allow the vehicles regulations and enforcement vary among cities. Despite that, Ian Clifford, president of Zenn (Zero Emissions, No Noise) of Toronto, Canada, estimates there are 45,000 NEVs and climbing on American roads. In his home country, federal and provincial rules forbid electric cars most everywhere, though British Columbia and Quebec allow low-speed electric vehicles on its urban roads.
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Electric vehicle (EV) defects of price, batteries, and range have limited their adoption in the past, and developing better electric vehicles (EV) is certainly laudable. But the article doesn’t say why people now want to buy EVs, but there are references to “zero-emission” “sustainable transport” and “no oil”.
Many in the environmental community have endorsed EVs with the claim that they are a way to reduce carbon emissions. But missing in all the promotion of EVs is the basic environmental fact that electric cars are not going to reduce transportation’s contribution to global climate change.
Let’s do the math to compare EV’s CO2 emissions to equivalent internal combustion vehicles (ICV):
Electric vehicles : Average electrical CO2 emissions per kilowatt-hr.(kWh) in U.S. = 1.6 lbs.; expected miles per kWh for a normal sized electric vehicle = 1.8 mpk; average CO2 per mile = .9 lbs for a EV.
Internal combustion vehicles: Average CO2 emission per gallon of fuel = 20 lbs; expected miles per gallon (mpg) for a small car (Chevy Impala) = 32 mpg; average CO2 per mile = .6 lbs. per mile for a ICV.
These calcs show that an average EV in America will emit 50% more CO2 per mile than a comparable sized, small ICV! If you are already energy efficient and drive a Prius or TDI getting 45 mpg, an EV will emit 100% more CO2 per mile than an energy efficient, readily available ICVs!
The above figures are for the U.S. where 70% of our electricity is generated with fossil fuels; but this is not that much different from the rest of the world where an average of 66% of the electricity is generated by fossil fuel. There are a few countries like Norway, Brazil, or France where most of their electricity is generated by hydro or nuclear, so their EVs would have lower CO2 emission; but on the other hand there are many countries like China and Israel that have virtual 100% fossil fuel electricity where EVs would emit 200% more CO2 than a efficient ICV! In those countries converting small vehicles to EVs would about as bad for the environment as converting all of them to Humvees.
Another factor is that converting all small residential vehicles from direct fossil fuel to electric would force the U.S. to increase its electrical production by 20%. That is a lot of electrical generating plants. Any increases in alternative energy production, like wind, will do nothing to reduce our CO2 emissions if the U.S. must increase electrical generation 20% to fuel EVs. Worldwide, this issue is even more dramatic and converting the world’s existing residential vehicle fleet to EVs would require about a 40% increase in world wide electrical generation—which, in balance, would also increase worldwide CO2 emissions significantly.
EVs have their niche, and can contribute to energy independence. But in most areas, they will emit significantly more carbon and are not sustainable.
posted by artjohnston on 11/15/2008 8:17 am